Thursday, March 31, 2016

Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw:  Study

An Adelie penguin stands atop a block of melting ice near the French station at Dumont díUrville in East Antarctica in this January 23, 2010 file photo. (Credit: Reuters/Pauline Askin/Files) Click to Enlarge.
Sea levels could rise 50 cm (20 inches) more this century than had been expected, according to a report published on Wednesday which found that Antarctic ice will melt faster than previously thought.

Climate scientists at two U.S. universities said the most recent U.N. report on the effects of global warming had underestimated the rate at which the ice covering the continent would melt.

That report, issued in 2013, said the worst case of man-made climate change would mean a sea-level rise of between 52 and 98 cm by 2100.  The new study suggests the real rise could be 1.5 meters (5 ft), posing an even greater threat to cities from New York to Shanghai.

"This could spell disaster for many low-lying cities," lead author Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, said in a statement of the findings published in the journal Nature.

"For example, Boston could see more than 1.5 meters of sea-level rise in the next 100 years."

The study, partly based on sea level evidence in a natural warm period 125,000 years ago, said ice from Antarctica alone could cause between 64 cm and 114 cm of sea level rise by 2100 under the worst U.N. scenario for greenhouse gas emissions.

One of the factors that has was underestimated in the U.N. reports, which envisage most Antarctic ice remaining frozen, is a process known as "hydro fracturing" whereby pools of meltwater on ice shelves seep deep into the ice, refreeze and force vast chunks of ice to crack off. That could make ice on land in Antarctica slide faster into the sea.

Read more at Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw:  Study

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