A rise beyond 2°C, the internationally agreed safety limit, may push the climate beyond tipping points and into dangerous instability. The expected pledges are likely to limit temperature rises to about 3°C.
But those negotiating towards a global agreement due to be settled in Paris in December remain upbeat. The current pledges would avoid a catastrophic rise of 5°C that would ensue if no emissions cuts were made, and the agreement is expected to contain measures to ratchet up emissions cuts in future years.
Nonetheless, significant disagreements remain to be overcome, including how much money poor nations will receive to cope with warming and how any deal is policed.
The U.N.’s climate chief, Christiana Figueres, said that so far 62 countries had submitted promises of emissions cuts ahead of the Paris meeting, covering about 70 percent of global emissions. UK government sources told the Guardian that pledges, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), were expected from India, Brazil, Indonesia and other nations before Paris.
In total, all these pledges would cover 85 percent of global emissions, according to the source, but the cuts would fall short of those needed to restrict warming to 2°C. Figueres said pledged cuts would only limit warming to 3°C, while the UK source said about 2.5°C, but stressed that these numbers are hard to predict precisely.
“What the INDCs will do is mark a very substantial departure from business as usual,” Figueres said. But she added: “Is 3°C acceptable? No.”
Achieving the further carbon cuts needed to curb warming from 3°C to 2°C will depend on agreeing to a deal in Paris that includes tough five-yearly reviews. That will be challenging but the prospects for a deal are good, according to the UK source. “The political conditions are there to do a deal, so we should do a deal,” he said. “It will not be a perfect deal, but it will be a big step.”
Read more at U.N.: Paris Climate Summit Pledges Won’t Avoid Warming
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