Monday, November 18, 2013

Near-Future Heat and Precipitation Extremes Predicted

Projected changes in intensity of hot extremes (first row) and cold extremes (second row), heavy precipitation intensity (third row) and dry spell length (last row) in 2041–2060 with respect to 1986–2005.
Unlike long-term climate predictions, forecasts about the next twenty to fifty years are fraught with major uncertainties.  In spite of this, however, ETH-Zurich scientists have found ways to make scientific projections about the coming decades -- by considering large regions or the entire world.

This enabled them to demonstrate that the intensity of heat extremes and periods of heavy rainfall will not increase equally everywhere on Earth:  while heat extremes will become significantly more intense on two thirds of the land surface within three decades, there will be no significant changes in a third of the area.  And as far as heavy rainfall is concerned, it will increase by ten per cent in a quarter of the area and less than ten per cent in the remaining three quarters.

Near-Future Heat and Precipitation Extremes Predicted

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