Electric Car Tipping Point Is at Hand

Could 2018 go down in history as the beginning of the end for fossil-powered vehicles?  Several auto industry analysts quoted in a recent Financial Times article (via The Drive) think it’s a possibility.  “We will probably see the peak of combustion engine car sales in 2018,” Felipe Munoz, an automotive analyst for Jato Dynamics, told FT, adding that his company’s ‘optimistic’ forecast for the global auto market had changed in the last six months.”

After several years of record growth, auto sales in China, Europe, and the US are leveling off.  “When you look at 2018 since the summer, new car sales in all of the important markets are going down,” Axel Schmidt, global automotive lead for Accenture, told FT.  “Selling combustion engine cars to customers — this will not grow in the future.”

Selling electric cars to customers, however, is expected to grow.  Moody’s forecasts that the market share of EVs will rise to 1.6 percent, offsetting the decline in ICE vehicle sales.  Most of the growth in EV adoption, at least in the near term, will happen in China, where automakers are investing huge sums in electrification as the government is making it almost impossible for them to expand production of gas-burning cars.

Of course, the US and European automakers have been producing EVs for years — and selling very few (except for a certain California company).  Fossil fuel-burning cars won’t be going away if consumers continue to demand them.  However, there’s good news on this front as well.  Last May, a survey by AAA found that 20% of respondents said their next vehicle would be an EV, up from 15% in 2017, when AAA first posed the question.

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