Analysis: Fossil-Fuel Emissions in 2018 Increasing at Fastest Rate for Seven Years

Hopes that global CO2 emissions might be nearing a peak have been dashed by preliminary data showing that output from fossil fuels and industry will grow by around 2.7% in 2018, the largest increase in seven years.

The new data, from researchers at the Global Carbon Project (GCP), is being published in Earth System Science Data Discussions and Environmental Research Letters to coincide with the UN’s COP24 climate summit in Poland.  The rapid increase in 2018 CO2 output from fossil fuel use and industry follows a smaller 1.6% rise in 2017.  Before that, three years of flat emissions output to 2016 had raised hopes that emissions had peaked.

This year, the largest increases have occurred in China, driven by government stimulus of the construction industry.  US emissions have also increased markedly in 2018, after an unusually cold winter and hot summer helped to drive up energy demand.

Continued emissions growth in 2019 “appear[s] likely”, the researchers say, driven by rising oil and gas use and rapid economic growth.  While some progress has been made, they add that the world has not yet reached the point where the energy system is being decarbonised fast enough to offset economic growth.

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