Wednesday, September 06, 2017

World Energy Demand to Plateau from 2030, Says Report

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Energy efficiency will improve faster than global economic growth due to the rapid electrification of the world’s energy system, leading to a plateau in energy demand from 2030.

That’s one of the key findings of the inaugural Energy Transition Outlook launched this week by quality assurance and risk management company DNV GL.

Other key findings of the report are that renewables will continue to rise, making up nearly half of global energy supply by 2050, cutting energy-related CO2 emissions in half by that time; gas supply will peak in 2035 but will still be the biggest single source of energy by mid-century; and the world will manage the shift to a renewable future without increasing overall annual energy expenditure, meaning that the future energy system will require a smaller share of GDP.

DNV GL says that the world “is approaching a watershed moment as energy demand is set to plateau from 2030, driven by greater efficiency with the wider application of electricity.”

Group president Remi Eriksen said:  “As a company, we are highly exposed to the radical changes that will come to every part of the energy value chain, and it is critical for our customers and ourselves that we understand the nature and pace of these changes.

“The profound change set out in our report has significant implications for both established and new energy companies.  Ultimately, it will be a willingness to innovate and a capability to move at speed that will determine who is able to remain competitive in this dramatically altered energy landscape.”

Historically, energy demand and CO2 emissions have moved broadly in line with GDP and population growth, but the DNV report stresses that that relationship is set to unravel.

“Electrification, particularly with the uptake of renewables, will change the way in which energy is supplied and consumed.  While the global economy and world population are set to grow modestly, energy demand will flatten out and CO2 emissions will drop sharply.” 

DNV GL forecasts that renewables and fossil fuels will have an almost equal share of the energy mix by 2050.  Wind power and solar PV will drive the continued expansion of renewable energy, whilst gas is on course to surpass oil in 2034 as the single biggest energy source.

Read more at World Energy Demand to Plateau from 2030, Says Report

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