And to achieve the Agreement’s goals, they say controversial and still-unproven technologies − including bio-energy and carbon capture and storage − will be needed.
A new analysis of the science and policy underlying the 1.5°C temperature rise limit included in the Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified several areas that its authors say need more research.
The Agreement aims to keep global average temperature rise “well below” the 2°C previously agreed, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
The analysis by a team of scientists − including from Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) − who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit is the centerpiece of a collection of content by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature journals, titled Targeting 1.5°C.
Low emission pathways
Much of their focus is on what available science says on low emission pathways that could achieve 1.5˚C. They say most such scenarios at least temporarily overshoot the 1.5˚C limit − that warming would rise above this level before returning to below 1.5˚C by 2100.
“Whether the presently available pathways are in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal is not a scientific but a political question,” says the paper’s lead author, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, scientific adviser at Climate Analytics. “Many vulnerable countries see 1.5°C as a limit that should not be exceeded..
“Further research on the feasibility of pathways that limit warming to below 1.5°C is therefore a central element of a post-Paris science agenda.”
Read more at Concerns Raised over Paris Climate Goals
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