Climate Change, Not Population Growth, Plays the Main Role in Predicting Extreme Droughts, Study Reveals

Common belief states that the dominant factor determining water scarcity in the next few decades will be population growth.  However, according to a new study by Stony Brook University, it's climate change -- not population growth -- that plays the main role in predicting future exposure to extreme droughts.

The study published in Climatic Change: "The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts," looks at the future global and national populations' exposure to extreme drought, based on an ensemble of 16 climate models and UN population growth projections.

The results imply that cutting greenhouse gas emissions should be the primary policy response for decreasing the number of people exposed to future extreme droughts. Population growth, while playing an important role for populations' drought exposure in some countries, is a less significant force, one for which developing nations should not be held responsible.

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