States Reach for Ambitious Zero-Emission Vehicle Goals, but Industry Is Skeptical

The so-called ZEV Alliance announced a most ambitious goal late last year:  eliminate the sale of traditionally fueled passenger cars by 2050.

Comprising California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, British Columbia and Quebec, the Zero-Emission Vehicle Alliance was formed to allow states and nations to swap ideas on how to better promote electric vehicles.

Already, ZEV markets in those cities and countries are the most successful in the world, representing almost 40 percent of global electric vehicle sales, though they constitute just 7 percent of the overall auto market.  The partners say their pledge is an important way to promote a technology that could bring cleaner air locally while staving off climate change globally.
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But taking traditional vehicles off the market is still a tall order.  Just last year, the United States fell nearly two-thirds short of an Obama administration goal to put 1 million electric cars on American roads by 2015.
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To meet the 2025 goals, each state must achieve different ZEV sales figures, depending on its population.  In California, for example, automakers would have to sell 1.5 million more electric cars in just 10 years to comply with regulations -- multiplying by 10 the number of ZEVs already on the road in that state.

Because of a quirk in the Clean Air Act, the eight alliance states all use the same ZEV regulations as California in order to achieve their numbers.  Those regulations work as a cap-and-trade program for electric vehicles, requiring automakers to sell an increasing number of ZEVs over time and allowing automakers to buy credits from other companies if they can't meet their numbers.

Even though states are part of a ZEV program, the regulation also assigns credits for "transitional zero-emission vehicles," like hybrids and other plug-in electrics that rely on both batteries and engines.

The California Air Resources Board says the inclusion works because companies receive credits based on how many miles each vehicle can drive without polluting.  So while a pure electric car that can drive 200 miles between charges receives five credits, a hybrid would receive fewer credits based on the range it can travel on just battery power.

Some experts, like Tesla Motors Inc. Vice President of Development Diarmuid O'Connell, say that by including hybrids, the regulations meant to incentivize companies to develop ZEVs actually give them a pass.
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Regulatory requirements under the ZEV program will start accelerating in 2018, with automakers required to accumulate more credits based on their market share while the maximum number of credits per vehicle drops.  In 2018, for example, a pure ZEV with a range of 350 miles between charges would receive the maximum of four credits.
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ARB projects that by 2025 in California, annual sales of ZEVs and plug-in hybrids would reach 600,000.

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