The judgment follows an analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) of the submissions by Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Chile, which together account for over two-thirds of the continent’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
CAT concluded that none of the submissions was sufficient to achieve a reduction in global warming to under 2°C unless other countries made much greater reductions. Instead, global warming would be more likely to reach 4°C if all countries came up with similarly unambitious targets.
The four countries are together responsible for 72% of South American GHG emissions, excluding changes in land use like cutting or burning forests for agriculture, a category known as LULUCF – Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry.
“None of these countries will be immune to the effects of climate change. An increase in warming of 2°C would have severe impacts on all four of them, and on the rest of the continent,” said Dr. Marcia Rocha, head of the climate policy team at Climate Analytics, one of the four research organisations which make up CAT.
“Yet instead of taking action commensurate with the size of the threat, these governments are largely sticking with their current policies, which are heading in the wrong direction.”
Targets missed?
Two Brazilian scientists have questioned in a letter in Science magazine whether even the modest targets set for 2030 will be met.
Raoni Rajão and Britaldo Soares Filho, environmental policy analysts at The Federal University of Minas Gerais, claim that it will be very difficult to meet Brazil´s target of a 43% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030, which is largely based on cutting illegal deforestation, because recent changes in the Forest Code will actually lead to an increase in legal deforestation.
Read more at South America Falters over Climate Action
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