Global Coal Consumption Likely Has Peaked, Report Says

The global peak reflects a remarkable peak and decline in Chinese coal consumption.

Coal still provides about 40 percent of the world's electricity, but it is "increasingly likely" that global consumption of the fossil fuel peaked in 2013, according to a new forecast based on recent trends in China, the world's biggest coal consumer, and the 11 other largest users.

An analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis showed that worldwide coal consumption is likely to decline 2 to 4 percent in 2015, despite near decade-low coal prices.  That's on top of 2014's 0.7 percent decline, estimated in BP's World Energy Outlook.

"This new analysis illustrates that an epoch-defining shift is shaping the global outlook for coal," said Tim Buckley, the lead author of the report and IEEFA's director of energy finance studies for Australian and Asian markets, in a statement.  "The global peak reflects a remarkable peak and decline in Chinese coal consumption."

Countries are following the Chinese trend, the report said.  China, which uses half the world's coal, reduced its consumption of the fossil fuel by 5.7 percent in the 12 months through September.  Other countries with declining coal use in 2015 were the U.S. (down 11 percent year over year), as well as Germany, the U.K., Japan, Canada, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia.  South Korea's coal consumption stayed flat.  Among the biggest coal consumers, only India and Australia saw growth.


The IEEFA projection of declining coal consumption contrasts with a recent forecast of increasing demand over the next five years from the International Energy Agency, based on older data.

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