Scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the U.S. Geological Survey used computer climate modeling tools to estimate the effects of warmer temperatures in future decades. In particular, they studied the effect on California’s mountain snowpack, the largest source of fresh water in the state, which refills thousands of water-storage reservoirs each spring via snowmelt.
The results show that by 2050, the median snowpack present on April 1 each year could be one-third smaller than the historical median, and by 2100 it could be two-thirds smaller. Such a dramatic loss of snowmelt would produce less runoff to refill reservoirs each summer, potentially making droughts an ever-present condition.
The research also shows that by 2100, there is only a 10 percent chance that California mountains will see a snowpack equal to the median that accumulates today.
The research was conducted by some of California’s leading climate researchers, and has not yet been published or peer reviewed. It was presented Thursday at the Bay-Delta Science Conference in Sacramento.
“The water contained in the snowpack is declining pretty steadily through the 21st century,” said Dan Cayan, director of the California Climate Change Center at Scripps in San Diego and the study’s lead author. “According to the models, we’re already detecting these changes in snowpack.”
Read More at New Research Predicts California Droughts Will Worsen
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