MIT: Global Energy Use, CO2 May Double by 2100

Even as curbing greenhouse gas emissions becomes more urgent as the effects of climate change become more acute, fossil fuels will remain the largest source of GHGs far into the 21st Century as both global energy use and CO2 emissions double, according to MIT’s 2014 Climate and Energy Outlook.
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Renewables and nuclear power are projected to make up less than 20 percent of the globe’s energy sources by 2050, mainly because natural gas will become the primary source of energy for power generation worldwide, displacing coal.

The report’s forecasts assume that the world’s developed countries will keep their Copenhagen-Cancun pledges, said the report’s lead author, John Reilly, co-director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT’s Center for Environmental Policy Research.
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Drastic measures from developing countries that would change the trajectory of these trends away from reliance on fossil fuels are unlikely to come out of COP 21, Reilly said.

Some countries are making progress, he said.  China is moving ahead with emissions reductions goals, higher-income countries such as South Korea and Mexico are taking measures to reduce emissions, and Brazil has reined in deforestation.

Other trends standing in the way of reducing GHG emissions include no widespread adoption of greenhouse gas pricing and inaction from Congress that is preventing the U.S. from showing leadership in reducing emissions, Reilly said.
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There may be a scenario in which low-carbon sources of energy become more widespread through 2050.

“In my view, the probability of a meaningful international climate agreement is greater now than it has been in 20 years,” said Robert N. Stavins, a professor of business and government at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

His optimism stems from the legally enforceable protocol adopted by the UN for an international agreement on climate in Paris in 2015, and the more politically feasible framework for that agreement that combines emissions reductions that each nation believes it can achieve, coupled with outside emissions monitoring and enforcement, Stavins said.

A quickly evolving combination of fuel sources for power generation across the globe also helps paint a more hopeful scenario for the future, Reilly said.

“Somewhat surprising to those of us in the U.S., Europe and Japan, there is a resurgence of nuclear in the world, happening outside these three developed country regions,” Reilly said.  “China, Russia, India and others are turning to nuclear.”

Beyond that, renewables are being developed quickly throughout the globe, but the challenge is finding ways to integrate that energy into the power grid.

MIT:  Global Energy Use, CO2 May Double by 2100