Record Jump in 2014-2016 Global Temperatures Largest Since 1900

Heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions and stored in the Pacific Ocean was released by the 2015-2016 El Niño, University of Arizona geoscientists found.

Global surface temperatures surged by a record amount from 2014 to 2016, boosting the total amount of warming since the start of the last century by more than 25 percent in just three years, according to new University of Arizona-led research.

"Our paper is the first one to quantify this jump and identify the fundamental reason for this jump," said lead author Jianjun Yin, a UA associate professor of geosciences.

The Earth's average surface temperature climbed about 1.6 degrees F (0.9 C) from 1900 to 2013.

By analyzing global temperature records, Yin and his colleagues found that by the end of 2016, the global surface temperature had climbed an additional 0.43 degrees F (0.24 C).

Co-author Jonathan Overpeck said, "As a climate scientist, it was just remarkable to think that the atmosphere of the planet could warm that much that fast."

The spike in warming from 2014 to 2016 coincided with extreme weather events worldwide, including heat waves, droughts, floods, extensive melting of polar ice and global coral bleaching.

The new research shows that natural variability in the climate system is not sufficient to explain the 2014-2016 temperature increase, said co-author Cheryl Peyser, a UA doctoral candidate in geosciences.

In the current paper, the researchers also projected how frequent such big temperature spikes would be under four different greenhouse emission scenarios.  Record-breaking temperature jumps and the accompanying extreme weather events will become more frequent unless greenhouse gas emissions decline, the team found.

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