Reconciling Predictions of Climate Change

Harvard University researchers have resolved a conflict in estimates of how much the Earth will warm in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

That conflict -- between temperature ranges based on global climate models and paleoclimate records and ranges generated from historical observations -- prevented the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from providing a best estimate in its most recent report for how much the Earth will warm as a result of a doubling of CO2 emissions.

The researchers found that the low range of temperature increase -- between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius -- offered by the historical observations did not take into account long-term warming patterns.  When these patterns are taken into account, the researchers found that not only do temperatures fall within the canonical range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius but that even higher ranges, perhaps up to 6 degrees, may also be possible.

The research is published in Science Advances.

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