Keystone XL: Oil Markets and Emissions

• Estimates of the incremental emission effects of individual oil sands projects like the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline are sensitive to assumptions about the response of world markets and alternative transportation options.
• A recent Nature Climate Change paper by Erickson and Lazarus concludes that KXL may produce incremental emissions of 0-110 million tonnes of CO2 per year, but the article has provoked some controversy.
• Comments by industry leaders and the recent shelving of a new bitumen mining project suggest that the expansion of the oil sands may be more transportation constrained and more exposed to cost increases than is sometimes assumed.
• Looking at the longer-term commitment effects of new infrastructure on cumulative emissions supports the higher-end incremental estimates.

Keystone XL:  Oil Markets and Emissions