Saturday, September 28, 2013

Why Is the IPCC AR5 So Much More Confident in Human-Caused Global Warming?

Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick dark red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (TSI; thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark blue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Krivova et al (2007). TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.
Cooling from human aerosol emissions offsets about one-third of the warming from human greenhouse gas emissions. The new IPCC statement says that even taking that aerosol cooling effect into account, humans are still the main cause of the global warming over the past 60 years.

 What's not causing global warming:  natural external factors like solar activity, and natural internal factors like ocean cycles:
The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of -0.1°C to 0.1°C, and from internal variability is likely to be in the range of -0.1°C to 0.1°C.
Why Is the IPCC AR5 So Much More Confident in Human-Caused Global Warming?
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