Antarctica's Winds Increasing Risk of Sea Level Rise from Massive Totten Glacier

The little-studied glacier in East Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea level by more than 11 feet.

As the winds around Antarctica intensify with rising global temperatures, they're driving changes in the ocean that could speed up the flow of the massive Totten Glacier, which carries ice from East Antarctica into the ocean, adding to sea level rise, a new study says.

Along the coast, surface winds are projected to intensify over the century due to warming caused by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.  The stronger winds can sweep aside a surface layer of very cold ocean water and enable warmer water from the depths to reach the base of the glacier's floating ice shelf and slowly eat away at the ice from below, the authors say.

The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, used detailed ocean temperature records and 15 years of data on the movement of the Totten Glacier and ice shelf to show how the ice thins and accelerates in response to changes in the wind.

The expected changes in wind patterns during the 21st century, "due in part to human activity ... could drive Totten's retreat," the researchers concluded.

If the Totten Glacier were to melt completely, it could raise global sea level by 3.5 meters (11.4 feet) or more, they wrote.
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The new study doesn't project a meltdown date for Totten Glacier, but it does mirror recent research from West Antarctica, said the study's lead author, Chad Greene, a climate researcher at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. In both regions, data suggest that intensifying winds push warmer water toward ice shelves.
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"The new study shows warm water persists year-round and that variations in ocean temperature on the shelf are linked to changes in winds near the shelf break," said Australian climate researcher Esmee van Wijk, who analyzes ocean data from remote instruments and ships.

It's important to understand the processes at work because of the amount of ice that glaciers like Totten holds.  And while nobody is talking about a quick meltdown scenario, people in low-lying areas, like Florida and Bangladesh, need to know if the ocean is going to rise several feet this century.

"East Antarctica has been ignored. People talk about it as the sleeping giant, in terms of potential sea level rise.  The Totten Glacier is the one we should be trying to monitor," said David Gwyther, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania, Australia who was part of the research team.

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