World Set for 3.4˚C by 2100

By the end of the century we should expect a world set for 3.4˚C more warmth than pre-industrial levels, analysts find.

By approaching 2100, a world set for 3.4˚C will, on present trends, probably be the reality confronting our descendants – slightly less warm than looked likely a year ago, analysts think.  That’s the good news, you could say.

But the bad news is twofold.  First, this improvement in planetary prospects will still leave the global temperature increase more than twice as high as the internationally agreed target of 1.5˚C.  And secondly, it depends largely on the efforts of just two countries – China and India.

They have made significant progress in tackling climate change in the last twelve months.  In contrast, a report by the analysts, from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), says that not only US climate policy has been rolled back under President Trump.  Most individual governments’ climate commitments are going in the wrong direction.

The CAT report says the world will – on present trends – still reach 2100 a long way above the 1.5˚C target for the Earth’s maximum tolerable temperature rise, which was endorsed in the Paris Agreement.

The Climate Action Tracker is an independent science-based assessment that each year  tracks countries’ emission commitments and actions.  Its members are Climate Analytics, Ecofys and NewClimate Institute.
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Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute said:  “Over the last year, governments have made substantial steps in improving climate policies, and this has had a discernible effect on global emissions projections.  For example, in the face of increasingly cheaper renewable energy, many are now actively moving away from coal.”  But the CAT shows that many governments are not seizing the opportunities renewables offer

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