Energy-related CO2 emissions from non-OECD countries exceeded those from the OECD countries in 2005. The IEO2017 Reference case projects that energy-related CO2 emissions from non-OECD countries will grow 0.9% per year from 2015–2040, which is much lower than the 3.2% per year average growth rate from 1990 to 2015.
EIA expects non-OECD countries to experience a 1.4% per year rate of increase in annual energy consumption from 2015 through 2040. The overall population in non-OECD countries is projected to grow more than twice as fast as that of OECD member countries, and the demand growth for energy services such as air conditioning, home electronics, and personal vehicles increases with rising incomes.
Some of the CO2 emissions related to increasing non-OECD energy demand are likely to be mitigated by changes in the fuel mix, similar to trends seen in the OECD countries. In 2015, renewable energy and nuclear power accounted for 14% of non-OECD countries’ energy consumption. By 2040 the IEO2017 projects that percentage to increase to 21%. EIA expects coal demand and related CO2 emissions, especially in China, to flatten as natural gas replaces coal in power generation and in industrial applications. China is currently the largest emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions in the world and is projected to remain in that position through 2040.
Read more at Growth in Global Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Expected to Slow
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