Sunday, April 30, 2017

  Sunday, Apr 30

Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources, as described by Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004.  We suggest in an upcoming paper that the temperature in 1940-45 is exaggerated because of data inhomogeneity in WW II. Linear-fit to temperature since 1970 yields present temperature of 1.06°C, which is perhaps our best estimate of warming since the preindustrial period.

New Book, Horsemen of the Apocalypse, Details Fossil Fuel Titans Behind Climate Crisis

Horsemen of the Apocalypse is the new book by environmental journalist Dick Russell that details the people and institutions most responsible for today’s climate and environmental crisis. (Main image: From the book cover) Click to Visit.
Horsemen of the Apocalypse is the new book by environmental journalist Dick Russell that details the people and institutions most responsible for today’s climate and environmental crisis.  Russell focuses on fossil fuel titans like Charles and David Koch; Secretary of State and former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson; CEO of fracking giant Continental Resources Harold Hamm; and Peabody Coal chief Greg Boyce. 

“As carbon dioxide has risen to atmospheric levels not witnessed on earth in millions of years, a relative handful of men have fought to maintain their power and wealth at the expense of all civilization,” Russell writes.  “This book scrutinizes who these people are, their means of confusing the truth, and how they justify their actions.”

In the book Russell addresses how these energy moguls manipulated and confused the public through public relations spin doctors like Richard Berman and propaganda campaigns run by nonprofit front groups, think tanks, and other research-for-hire organizations.  Russell unearths the unrelenting flow of fossil fuel money to lobbyists and government decision makers, particularly within the Trump administration, which has tilted the scales in favor of corporate profits and against the well-being of all people and the planet.

The book dives into the history of individuals — many now running the government — who have deep ties to the Koch brothers, dark money, and networks of climate denial.  A sampling of these individuals include many familiar to DeSmog readers:  the current head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt; Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke; Secretary of Energy Rick Perry; Rep. Lamar Smith; Sen. James Inhofe; David Schnare; Michael Catanzaro; Myron Ebell; Thomas Pyle; and Mike Pompeo.

Russell also covers the shifting mind-set of the younger generation.  In particular, he writes about the offspring of some of the wealthiest fossil fuel families and their dedication to changing the status quo in the energy arena.  He covers the journey to fossil fuel divestment by the Rockefeller family, as well as the environmental quest of the granddaughter of the man who pioneered fracking.  He also interviews the son of Richard Berman who has described his father as “a sort of human monster.” 

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. edited the book and provides the introduction.  Kennedy notes how the election of Donald Trump has unfortunately resulted in the “horsemen” described in the book being elevated to “the pinnacle of power.”  Kennedy also references the Book of Revelation — the origin of the concept of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. 

“The Book of Revelation described the Four Horsemen as war, conquest, pestilence and death.  Donald Trump’s choice, to invite a group of conscienceless oil men to govern the country, has brought such chilling metaphors to the foreground, as more than an obscure biblical reference.”

As Americans turn out to march in support of science and action on climate change, this new book details how we arrived here and why these efforts are more critical than ever to ensure Earth is a livable planet for future generations. 

Read more at New Book, Horsemen of the Apocalypse, Details Fossil Fuel Titans Behind Climate Crisis

Nitrite Pollution Puts Warming Waters at Risk

Nitrite pollution caused by rising temperatures is changing the chemistry of coastal waters, threatening more algal blooms and zones devoid of fish.

An algal bloom in a Florida harbor:  Growing warmth and increasing nitrite are likely to make them commoner. Image: John Moran via Wikimedia Commons Click to Enlarge.
US scientists have identified a new hazard linked to global warming:  a change in ocean water chemistry causing nitrite pollution that could trigger toxic algal blooms and even dead zones in coastal waters.

Nitrite is a byproduct of fertilizer decay, and is becoming increasingly common as a potential pollutant as ocean temperatures rise.  Humans use sodium nitrite to preserve meat products such as bacon and sausage, but health authorities would prefer to see less of it in the human diet.

In the wider world nitrite becomes available as microbial organisms consume ammonium in fertilizer waste that washes down rivers and estuaries to the coasts, and although it is a natural product of natural biochemical processes, too much nitrite is not healthy for the environment either.

It can affect the species and numbers of single-celled plants that live at sea, and trigger toxic blooms that consume the ocean’s oxygen and create zones where no fish can survive.

“Rising ocean temperatures are changing the way coastal ecosystems – and probably terrestrial ecosystems, too – process nitrogen,” said James Hollibaugh, professor of marine sciences at the University of Georgia at Athens.  “Much of the global nitrogen cycle takes place in the coastal zone.”

The ocean environment is changing:  the seas are becoming measurably more acidic as they absorb ever more atmospheric carbon dioxide, the product of fossil fuel consumption that is driving global warming.

Repeated warnings
Researchers have more than once warned of “dead zones” and toxic algal blooms as a consequence of changing climatic conditions.  Ocean temperatures are increasing, and this in turn encourages a new set of biochemical processes.

Professor Hollibaugh and a colleague report in the journal Environmental Science and Technology that over the course of eight summers they measured peaks of nitrite, alongside massive increases in the numbers of the microorganisms that produce it, in coastal waters off Georgia.

One argument has it that nitrite accumulation is a consequence of oxygen deficiency.  The Georgia scientists wondered if there could be another explanation.

In the laboratory, they exposed single-celled creatures called Thaumarchaea to different temperature levels, and found that as the thermometer went up, so did the nitrite output.

The microbes involved in the process co-operated to convert ammonium to nitrate, with a nitrite stage in the process:  a reaction that chemists would write as NH3 to NO2 to NO3.  Higher temperatures interfered with the second stage of the reaction, leaving a nitrite surplus.

That was what happened in the lab. To test the result, the scientists then analysed environmental monitoring data from 270 locations around 29 temperate and subtropical lagoons and estuaries across the US, France and Bermuda, to confirm the finding:  the link between higher temperatures and nitrite accumulation held.

“The information gained from monitoring programmes can be used not only to forecast what is going to happen down the road, but also to come up with potential solutions”
“The same process, though we didn’t look at it specifically, takes place in regards to fertilizing soil for agricultural purposes.  It affects farmers and their efficient use of fertilizer – when they should apply it and what form it should be in – and ultimately much of that fertilizer will end up in the waterways, which can lead to algal blooms that choke out other species,” said Professor Hollibaugh.

And this in turn raises the spectre of positive feedback:  more nitrite could then lead to more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere.  This is one of the greenhouse gases that would then accelerate atmospheric warming, leading to even more nitrite in the estuaries and lagoons, and then more nitrous oxide again.
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“If you live on a marsh and look out over the water, you’re probably not going to notice it, but if you like shellfish, like to fish, like recreational water sports, then these findings do matter,” Professor Hollibaugh said.

Read more at Nitrite Pollution Puts Warming Waters at Risk

NY Times Hired a Hippie Puncher to Give Climate Obstructionists Cover

Yesterday, New York Times subscribers were treated to an email alert announcing the first opinion column from Bret Stephens, who they hired away from the Wall Street Journal.  Like all Journal opinion columnists who write about climate change, Stephens has said a lot of things on the subject that could charitably be described as ignorant and wrong.  Thus many Times subscribers voiced bewilderment and concern about his hiring, to which the paper’s public editor issued a rather offensive response.

Justifying the critics, here’s how the paper announced Stephens’ first opinion column in an email alert (usually reserved for important breaking news):
TOP STORIES
In his debut as a Times Op-Ed columnist, Bret Stephens says reasonable people can be skeptical about the dangers of climate change
Stephens gets his few facts wrong
In his column, Stephens pooh-poohed climate change as a “modest (0.85 degrees Celsius) warming of the Northern Hemisphere since 1880,” citing the 2014 IPCC report.  However, Stephens packed three big mistakes into that single sentence.  Here’s what the IPCC said (emphasis added):
The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012
The northern hemisphere warms faster than the global average because it has more land and less ocean than the southern hemisphere (water warms slowly), so this is an important mistake that underestimates the global temperature rise.  On top of that, since 2012 we’ve seen the three hottest years on record (2014, 2015, and 2016), so even the 0.85°C warming figure is outdated (it’s now right around 1°C).

Stephens doesn’t understand the rapid pace or urgency of the problem
Most importantly, the global warming we’ve experience is in no way “modest.”  We’re already causing a rate of warming faster than when the Earth transitions out of an ice age, and within a few decades we could be causing the fastest climate change Earth has seen in 50 million years.  The last ice age transition saw about 4°C global warming over 10,000 years; humans are on pace to cause that much warming between 1900 and 2100 – a period of just 200 years, with most of that warming happening since 1975.

Of course, how much global warming we see in the coming decades depends on how much carbon pollution we dump into the atmosphere.  If we take serious immediate action to cut those emissions, as the international community pledged to do under the Paris agreement, we can limit global warming to perhaps 2°C, and the climate consequences that come along with it.

But this is where Stephens’ opinions are particularly unhelpful:
Demanding abrupt and expensive changes in public policy raises fair questions about ideological intentions.  Censoriously asserting one’s moral superiority and treating skeptics as imbeciles and deplorables wins few converts … Perhaps if there were less certitude about our climate future, more Americans would be interested in having a reasoned conversation about it.
In other words, the people obstructing climate policies are justified because climate “advocates” are too mean to them, and claim too much certainty about the future.

This is of course nonsense.  There is uncertainty about how much global warming and climate change we’ll see in the coming decades (climate scientists are crystal clear about this), but the biggest factor contributing to that uncertainty is human behavior – how much carbon pollution we end up dumping into the atmosphere.  This is apparent from looking at the IPCC global temperature projections:

Global average surface temperature projections. (Illustration Credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report)  Click to Enlarge.
In the red ‘burn lots of fossil fuels’ (RCP8.5) scenario, we’ll see a further 3.0–5.5°C warming between now and 2100.  In the blue ‘take immediate serious climate action’ (RCP2.6) scenario, we’ll see a further 0.5–1.5°C global warming by 2100.  Those ranges represent uncertainties in the climate modeling, but the difference between them – which is based on how much carbon pollution we release – is bigger than the uncertainty in each scenario.

Stephens needs a lesson in risk management
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So far, climate change may be humanity’s greatest-ever risk management failure.  The Paris climate agreement was a major step to remedy that failure, but now the Trump administration is debating whether to withdraw from it, or simply refuse to honor America’s pledges.

There have been bipartisan bills in Congress to implement market-based solutionsto the problem, but each has been blocked by the Republican Party at the behest of its fossil fuel donors.  Democrats have even proposed small government, revenue-neutral solutions that would benefit the economy, but while some Republican elder statesmen support the policy, Republicans in Congress have refused to even vote on it.

Stephens punches the hippies
In short, on climate science and policy it’s clear where the problem lies, and it’s not with the advocates.  Not only does Stephens get basic facts wrong and gloss over the tremendous risks posed by climate change, but he blames partisan policy obstruction on the people who are desperately trying every possible avenue to solve the problem.  The New York Times is publishing and promoting textbook hippie punching, and its readers are rightly appalled.

Read more at NY Times Hired a Hippie Puncher to Give Climate Obstructionists Cover

An Ice-Free Summer in the Arctic Ocean Would Be Deadly for the Northern Hemisphere

New modeling suggests it could happen as soon as mid-century.


March sea ice extent has been declining by 2.74 percent per decade. (Chart: NSIDC) Click to Enlarge.
Climate scientists don’t like to get pinned down on making date-specific projections about the effects of global warming.  But after months of watching Arctic sea ice languish at a record low, the big question has surfaced once again:  When will we see the Arctic’s first ice-free summer?

According to University of Exeter climate researcher James Screen, the latest modeling suggests that, unless heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions stop soon, an ice-free Arctic summer will happen as soon as 2046.

“That’s our best estimate, give or take 20 years,” Screen said during an April 24th press conference at the European Geosciences Union conference in Vienna.  The ice decline is clearly linked with rising global temperatures, and the chances that the Arctic will be ice-free increase dramatically when the average global temperature rises between 1.7 and 2.1 degrees Celsius, Screen said.

There’s a good chance an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer would have a strong effect on seasonal weather patterns across land areas in the Northern Hemisphere, and it would have big implications for ocean ecosystems.  Polar bears use sea ice to hunt for seals, and a complete meltdown would also affect the blooming cycles of plankton, which serves as food for whales, fish, and birds.  Further, ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean would also spur an increase in shipping, fishing, and, potentially, oil and gas drilling.

Screen, an expert on how the melting sea ice affects the path of weather systems around the Northern Hemisphere, said that the regional distribution of ice decline is important.  In recent years, most melting has been in the Barents Sea, which leads to cooling over Eurasia.  That spatial variation means that, as the pattern of melting changes, the effects over land areas will shift as well.

Read more at An Ice-Free Summer in the Arctic Ocean Would Be Deadly for the Northern Hemisphere

Climate Protest Takes on Trump's Policies -- and the Heat -- in DC March

Protesters march away from the US Capitol on Saturday in Washington.(Credit: cnn.com) Click to Enlarge.
Protesters backing action on climate change ... braved the sweltering heat Saturday in the nation's capital as part of the People's Climate March.

The march began at 12:30 p.m. near the Capitol, and demonstrators planned to move to the White House and end up at the Washington Monument, according to the proposed route map.

Michele Holmes, from New York's Harlem neighborhood, is one of those activists.  She joined about 200 others who climbed into four buses traveling to 
Washington early Saturday to join in the march.

"Trump is undoing everything Obama did.  He doesn't realize climate change impacts everyone.  It impacts him," Holmes told CNN.  "Change is inevitable, and only we can solve it -- the impact is just changing the way we live."

Temperatures neared 90 degrees Saturday, well above the average high of 71 degrees for April 29, according to Weather.com.

Washington's Fire and Emergency Medical Services said it had received 50 calls as of 4:41 p.m. EDT for medical incidents related to the climate march.  Four people were taken to hospitals.

Hundreds of sister marches were also planned across the United States and around the world. Protesters marched through the snow in Denver.  Demonstrations were held in Boston, New York, Seattle, Chicago, Amsterdam, and London.

Coinciding with Donald Trump's 100th day in office, the protests are taking on the President's environmental policies, which have generally prioritized economic growth over environmental concerns.

During those first 100 days, the Environmental Protection Agency has moved swiftly to roll back Obama-era regulations on fossil fuels while also facing significant planned budget cuts.

Read more at Climate Protest Takes on Trump's Policies -- and the Heat -- in DC March

West Virginia’s Biggest Utility Just Told the Governor Burning More Coal Is “Not Going to Happen”

Average annual number of coal miners, 1985 to 2015 (Credit: St. Louis Federal Reserve Board) Click to Enlarge.
West Virginia is coal country.  And so, given Trump’s promise to “put our [coal] miners back to work,” it’s no surprise that the state’s Democratic governor Jim Justice wants his state’s biggest utility to burn more of it.

But Chris Beam, president of Appalachian Power, the state’s largest utility, has some bad news.

Beam told the governor—a farmer and coal mogul himself—that all new power generation would likely come from wind, solar, and natural gas.  “The governor asked me, ‘I’d like you to burn more coal,’” Beam said according to the West Virginia Gazette-Mail.  “Well, we don’t have any more coal plants.  We’re not going to build any more coal plants.  That’s not going to happen.”

This isn’t an issue of pollution controls, however; Customers and economics are driving today’s energy agenda.  Beam says the debate over climate change, and the role of coal in it, is essentially over.  Appalachian Power’s parent company AES believes the regulation of carbon dioxide is inevitable.  In the coming decades, renewable energy and natural gas are poised to dominate the fuel mix.  “We’re past that argument as a company,” Beam said.

Appalachian Power’s residential and industrial customers, which include Steel Dynamics, Koch Industries, and Marathon petroleum, are now asking about switching to 100% renewables, says John Shepelwich of Appalachian Power.  In order to get out in front of this growing demand, the utility, which serves more than a million customers across the US mid-Atlantic region, has begun preparing power plans that would allow customers to stop using fossil fuels.

Read more at West Virginia’s Biggest Utility Just Told the Governor Burning More Coal Is “Not Going to Happen”