World Is Unprepared for Major El Niño Later This Year

Wild weather is coming in 2014, with floods, storms and droughts expected around the Pacific, but little is being done to protect the people on the front line

A big El Niño in 1997-98 killed 20,000 people and caused almost $97 billion of damage.

Meteorologists contacted by New Scientist all expect an El Niño at the end of this year.  And it looks like a big one, says Wenju Cai of CSIRO, Australia's national research agency, in Melbourne.  The more heat in the Pacific, the bigger the El Niño, and right now, 150 metres below the surface, a ball of warm water is crossing that ocean.  "It's huge," says Cai.

Yet official forecasts remain cautious.  As recently as 5 May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration only said the odds of an El Niño would exceed 50 per cent this year.

Most El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative.  "One thing I hear over and over again is 'we do not want to create a panic'," says Timmermann.  There is a reason: forecasting a big El Niño would cause a spike in food prices.  "But it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later."

World Is Unprepared for Major El Niño Later This Year