The flooding event began on May 13 when an area of low pressure developed as warm, moist air from over the Mediterranean Sea clashed with colder air from the north. The low became cut-off from the jet stream, which would ordinarily usher the system across the region — instead, it remained parked over southeast Europe, dumping rain for several days.
Authorities in Bosnia and Serbia reported that about 4 inches of rain fell on May 14 and 15, with larger downpours in some locations. In just a few days, some areas received an amount of rain equivalent to one third of their annual total, said Steven Bowen, an associate director and meteorologist with the reinsurance group Aon Benfield.
“We’re looking at a pretty unprecedented event,” Bowen told Climate Central. It was at least a 1-in-100 year event for the region, he said.
The effects could have been worse, though, as the event was well forecast by European and local meteorological agencies, said Dimitar Ivanov, a meteorologist with the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO has worked in the region to better train meteorologists to forecast extreme weather events and to improve communication between forecasters and civil authorities, Ivanov, who has been involved with that work, said. In this case, Serbian and Bosnian authorities both issued a “red warning” (the highest warning level) for rains and flooding through MeteoAlarm, a platform aimed at providing comprehensive weather warnings across Europe, and which Bosnia just recently joined.
“I believe that the information that was provided in advance of this particular event really helped to minimize the losses,” Ivanov told Climate Central.
The Climate Context for ‘Unprecedented’ Balkans Flooding
No comments:
Post a Comment