Saturday, November 09, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan: A Hint of What's to Come?

Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected percent change in the average over period 2081-2100 relative to 2000-2019, under a high emissions scenario. The metrics presented here include the total annual frequency of tropical storms, the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, the mean lifetime maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and the precipitation rate within 200 km of the storm center at its most intense point. The solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the likely confidence interval for this value. Click image to enlarge. (Credit: IPCC Working Group II)
Super Typhoon Haiyan was one of the most intense tropical cyclones at landfall on record when it struck the Philippines on Nov. 7.  Its maximum sustained winds at landfall were pegged at 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph.  Some meteorologists even proclaimed it to be the strongest tropical cyclone at landfall in recorded history.

 Haiyan's strength and the duration of its Category 5 intensity -- the storm remained at peak Category 5 intensity for an incredible 48 straight hours -- raises the question of whether manmade global warming tipped the odds in favor of such an extreme storm. After all, the global atmosphere contains 4 percent more water vapor than there was in the 1970s and global air and sea surface temperatures are higher now than they used to be, due in large part to manmade global warming as well as natural climate variability. These changes would, in theory at least, lead to stronger and wetter storms.

Super Typhoon Haiyan: A Hint of What's to Come?
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