Thursday, November 14, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

Departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were 4 - 5°C above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. (Credit: Japan Meteorological Agency) Click to enlarge.
A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan.

 The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet.

 Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.)  However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average, judging by an analysis of October average ocean temperatures from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

 Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters
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