Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1° of Global Warming

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change has raised questions about the effectiveness of the accord, and how that will change without the US.

In his announcement, Trump incorrectly claimed the deal would avoid just 0.2°C of warming.  In fact, nine separate studies show, on average, that full implementation of current climate pledges would avoid 1°C of warming, compared to a business-as-usual world.

Analysis by Carbon Brief finds that if the US reneges on its Paris pledge and takes no action to reduce emissions, it could result in around 0.2°C to 0.3°C additional warming, whereas a delay in implementation of four or eight years would have minimal impact.

Carbon Brief explains how these temperature estimates are made and explores the impacts of Paris, with and without US participation.

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