Regional Sea-Level Scenarios Will Help Northeast Plan for Faster-Than-Global Rise

Global sea level could rise by as much as 8 feet by 2100 in a worst-case scenario, according to federal report coauthored by Rutgers' Robert E. Kopp

Sea level in the Northeast and in some other U.S. regions will rise significantly faster than the global average, according to a report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Moreover, in a worst-case scenario, global sea level could rise by about 8 feet by 2100. Robert E. Kopp, an associate professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University, coauthored the report, which lays out six scenarios intended to inform national and regional planning.

"Currently, about 6 million Americans live within about 6 feet of the sea level, and they are potentially vulnerable to permanent flooding in this century.  Well before that happens, though, many areas are already starting to flood more frequently," said Kopp, who leads Rutgers' new Coastal Climate Risk and Resilience graduate traineeship.  "Considering possible levels of sea-level rise and their consequences is crucial to risk management."

The report, Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, provides regional sea-level rise scenarios and tools for coastal preparedness planning and risk management. It also reviews recent scientific literature on "worst-case" global average sea-level projections and on the potential for rapid ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica.

The report's authors, who also include scientists from federal agencies, Columbia University and the South Florida Water Management District, concluded that evidence supports a "worst-case" global average sea-level rise of about 8.2 feet by 2100. Recent studies on Antarctic ice-sheet instability indicate that such rises may be more likely than once thought, the report says.

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