Heat Is On for 2017, Just Not Record-Setting

2016 is about to cap off the hottest year on record for the third straight year, a remarkable streak fueled primarily by the excess heat trapped in Earth’s atmosphere by ever-rising levels of greenhouse gases.

While that streak is expected to end, in part because of the demise of one of the strongest El Niños on record, 2017 is still expected to be among the hottest years in more than 130 years of record keeping, according to a forecast from the U.K. Met Office.

Because of global warming, “each new year is basically predestined to be among the warmest on record,” Deke Arndt, chief of the monitoring branch of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information, said in an email.

Because of global warming, 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred this century, the only exception being the strong El Niño year of 1998.

Each year, the Met Office uses climate models to forecast the global annual average temperature for the coming decade, in an effort to improve shorter-term climate forecasting of features like hurricane season activity and droughts.

Forecasters expect 2017’s temperature to fall between 1.13°F (0.63 °C) and 1.57°F (0.87 °C) above the 1961-1990 average.

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