EPA: Keystone XL to Emit 1 Billion Extra Tons of GHGs

The energy it will take to process Canadian tar sands oil and pipe it through the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline is so great that it will lead to about 1.3 billion more tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the pipeline’s 50-year lifespan than if the pipeline were carrying conventional crude.

That’s the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s conclusion in its Feb. 2 comments to the U.S. State Department, which gave federal agencies until Monday to comment about whether Keystone XL is in the natural interest. If built, the pipeline would send about 800,000 barrels of Canadian tar sands oil per day to refineries in Texas.

Tar sands crude oil is thick, mucky stuff, and it takes more energy to transport and refine it than conventional crude oil, leading to the burning of more greenhouse gas emissions.
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Keystone XL opponents, including top climate scientists, are concerned that fully developing the tar sands would open up a vast reservoir of carbon to be released into the atmosphere, making it increasintly difficult to meet the international goal of preventing the globe from warming more than 2°C, or 3.6°F.
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The State Department’s own environmental analysis concluded that emissions from tar sands crude oil are 17 percent greater than conventional crude when measured from the time of extraction to the point of being burned as vehicle fuel.

The State Department concluded the Keystone would have a negligible impact on climate change because the pipeline’s demise would simply force energy companies to find other ways to fully develop Canada’s tar sands.  In other words, the department concluded that it’s nearly inevitable the carbon locked up in the tar sands today will be emitted into the atmosphere no matter the fate of Keystone XL because the tar sands will have other routes to market.

But the EPA said the State Department should account for highly fluctuating oil prices in its final Keystone XL decision.  In its analysis the State Department assumed that high oil prices would be ample encouragement for energy companies to develop alternatives to Keystone XL.
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“Until ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of oil sands are more successful and widespread, the Final (State Department environmental analysis) makes clear that, compared to reference crudes, development of oil sands crude represents a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions,” the EPA said in its comments.
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A 2014 study published in Nature Climate Change suggested that building Keystone XL would actually increase demand for crude oil, possibly quadrupling the maximum estimated greenhouse gas emissions expected to come from fully developing the tar sands.

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