As Extreme Weather Increases, a Push for Advanced Forecasts

To allow more time for complex decisions and preparations in the face of rising weather threats, scientists are now looking to medium-range forecasting — predicting high-impact events one to two weeks in advance — and are devising new tools and technologies to sharpen their weather vision.  These include beefed-up supercomputers crunching complex algorithms; seven- to 14-day heat wave and gale predictions; high-resolution models with a more dense data grid on location, altitude, and time; and better accounting for uncertainty. 

Medium-range forecasting efforts are gearing up across the globe.  The World Meteorological Organization has just launched its High Impact Weather Project, a 10-year, multinational mission.  One goal is to create accurate predictions, up to two weeks in advance, for weather that can cause urban floods, severe winter storms, fires, and extreme winds. 

“As a consequence of changing climate we foresee an urgent need to extend the forecast concept to cover a much wider range of environmental factors … over a longer range of timescales,” said Paolo Ruti, chief of the organization’s World Weather Research Division. 
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In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is undergoing a major supercomputer upgrade.  The increased computing power allowed the weather service to overhaul its outdated Global Forecasting System, which performed well on its maiden runs forecasting the path of the January blizzard that brushed past New York City.

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