The oversupply pushed prices through the floor, making solar power more competitive and driving up demand. It also dragged dozens of manufacturers into bankruptcy, and slowed capital investment at the survivors. With installations expected to swell as much as 29 percent this year, executives are bracing for the first shortfall since 2006.
Scarcity will benefit the biggest manufacturers, including China’s Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. (YGE) and Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL). A shortage may slow development outside the top markets in Asia and North America if suppliers favor their largest customers. Shipments to large, utility-scale solar farms may get priority over smaller, rooftop systems, threatening one of the industry’s fastest-growing markets.
“The cell and module glut has certainly dried up,” said Stefan de Haan, a solar analyst at IHS Inc. “There is no massive overcapacity anymore.”
The looming shortage shows the rapid expansion of solar energy. The industry may install as much as 52 gigawatts this year and 61 gigawatts in 2015. That’s up from 40 gigawatts in 2013, and more than seven times what developers demanded five years ago, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Solar Boom Driving First Global Panel Shortage Since 2006
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