Climate Change to Almost Triple Risk of Extreme Indian Ocean Weather Events

Shifting climate patterns in the Indian Ocean driven by global warming are likely to increase the frequency of “devastating” weather events for much of Australia, Indonesia and eastern Africa, a study led by Australian researchers has found.

While attention has focused on the prospect of an El Nino forming in the Pacific, a similar phenomenon may be under way in the Indian Ocean that could exacerbate dry and hot conditions for large areas of Australia.

Tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are becoming cool relative to those in the west.

Known as a positive-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such conditions typically mean less convection off north-western Australian and reduced rainfall in winter and spring for south-eastern and central Australia.  Indonesia also tends to endure drought and bushfires while east Africa gets hit by floods.

Positive-IODs coincide with El Ninos 70 per cent of the time, and in combination tend to result in dry, mild winters extending into dry, hot summers for most of NSW, Victoria, and elsewhere in south-eastern Australia.

Climate Change to Almost Triple Risk of Extreme Indian Ocean Weather Events