IPCC Authors Find Transportation Emissions on Track to Double by 2050

Lacking improvements in fuel efficiency combined with a comprehensive mitigation policy, the report finds that transport emissions could double by 2050 from 6.7 gigatons of emitted carbon dioxide in 2010, which represents 22 percent of the world's total.

Demand for personal vehicles and consumer goods in fast-growing economies like China, India and Brazil is fueling the use of motorized transport across all modes.  The transportation sector's almost complete reliance on energy-dense, high-carbon fuels, like gasoline and diesel makes reducing emissions an even greater challenge.

"[Transportation] could actually become one of the biggest sectors of emissions ... because you can mitigate the other sectors more easily," said an expert familiar with the draft report.

The upcoming report finds that technical improvements and behavioral changes, combined with new infrastructure and urban development investments, could reduce energy demand from the transport sector by up to 40 percent below the base line in 2050, a greater reduction potential than shown in the fourth assessment report.

According to transport exports, urban centers represent both the greatest potential source of transport emissions and the greatest opportunity to mitigate them.

IPCC Authors Find Transportation Emissions on Track to Double by 2050