Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Did Denier ‘Intimidation Tactics’ Move IPCC to ‘Lowball’ Sea Level Rise and Climate Sensitivity?

Chart shows the predictions of the IPCC global models used in their most recent report. For comparison a bold orange line shows the best estimates -- based on multiple modes of observations -- for what has actually happened. (Credit: www.vancouverobserver.com) Click to enlarge.
The New York Times has an article on how and why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “seems to be bending over backward to be scientifically conservative” in its forthcoming assessment.

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is “an instantly out-of-date snapshot that lowballs future warming because it continues to ignore large parts of the recent literature and omit what it can’t model.”  For instance we have known for years that perhaps the single most important carbon-cycle feedback is the thawing of the northern permafrost.  The AR5's climate models completely ignore it, thereby lowballing likely warming this century.


Did Denier ‘Intimidation Tactics’ Move IPCC to ‘Lowball’ Sea Level Rise and Climate Sensitivity?

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