Heat-Related Deaths Likely to Increase Significantly as Global Temperatures Rise, Warn Researchers

Models show that the implementation of the Paris Agreement is critical to avoid a large increase in temperature-related deaths.

The world needs to keep global temperatures in check by meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, or more people could die because of extreme temperatures, say authors of a new study in the letters section of Springer's journal Climatic Change.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), binds nations to hold warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) in global mean temperature, relative to pre-industrial levels.  It also urges countries to make additional efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), this is the first study that evaluates global temperature-related health impacts under scenarios consistent with the Agreement.  The researchers assessed the mortality impacts projected for a range of temperature increases, either compatible with the thresholds set in Paris (1.5°C and 2°C) or higher (3°C and 4°C).  These projections took into account how an increase in heat-related deaths might be offset against a decrease in deaths due to cold, as global temperatures rise.

The scope of the study allowed global comparisons across various areas of the world.  The team at LSHTM first analyzed historical data on temperature-related deaths from 451 locations in 23 countries with different socio-economic and climatic conditions.  They then projected changes in mortality under climate scenarios consistent with the various increases in global temperature, while keeping demographic distributions and temperature-health risks constant.

The results indicated dramatic increases of heat-related deaths under extreme warming (3°C and 4°C) compared to the mildest threshold (1.5°C), with additional excess mortality ranging from +0.73 per cent to +8.86 per cent across all regions.  The net difference remained positive and high in most of the areas, even when potential decreases in cold-related deaths were considered.

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