Warming of 2C ‘Substantially’ More Harmful than 1.5C – Draft UN Report

Latest version of major UN science report concludes the upper temperature goal of the Paris Agreement does not represent a climate safe zone.

A leaked draft of a major UN climate change report shows growing certainty that 2C, once shorthand for a ‘safe’ amount of planetary warming, would be a dangerous step for humanity.

The authors make clear the difference between warming of 1.5C and 2C would be “substantial” and damaging to communities, economies, and ecosystems across the world.

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established twin goals to hold temperature rise from pre-industrial times “well below 2C” and strive for 1.5C.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since been working to assess the difference between those targets, with a view to publishing a sweeping analysis of all available research in October this year.

The report summary, which Climate Home News published on Wednesday, is a draft and subject to change.  The IPCC said it would not comment on leaked reports.  An earlier draft from January was also published by CHN.

CHN has compared the January and June drafts.  The new version builds a stronger case for governments to rapidly cut carbon pollution.  It also strikes a marginally more optimistic tone on the attainability of the 1.5C target.

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