New Phase of Globalization Could Undermine Efforts to Reduce CO2 Emissions

New research reveals the growth of carbon production from Chinese exports has slowed or reversed, reflecting a "new phase of globalization" between developing countries that could undermine international efforts to reduce emissions.

Some production activities are relocating from China and India to other developing countries, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, particularly for raw materials and intermediate goods production in energy-intensive sectors.

In turn the growth of CO2 emissions embodied in Chinese exports has slowed or reversed, while the emissions embodied in exports, such as textiles, from less-developed regions like Vietnam and Bangladesh have surged.

International trade increased by more than 50% from 2005 to 2015, with approximately 60% of the increase tied to rising exports from developing countries.  Yet over the same period, South-South trade grew even faster -- more than tripling -- to reach 57% of all developing country exports (US$9.3 trillion) in 2014.

Publishing their findings in Nature Communications, the authors warn this trend may seriously undermine international efforts to reduce global emissions that increasingly rely on rallying voluntary contributions of more, smaller, and less-developed nations.

It follows research published last month in Geophysical Research Letters, in which the authors argue that the Chinese export-embodied CO2 emissions have peaked due to the changing structure of Chinese production.  They suggest more attention should be focused on ensuring countries that may partly replace China as major production bases increase their exports using low-carbon inputs.

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