Warming Could Breach 1.5C Within Five Years, Says UK Met Office

Background warming and natural cycles could push warming beyond 1.5C, within a decade of nations agreeing to try and keep it below that limit.

The UK’s meteorological agency has forecast the global temperature might flicker above 1.5C within the next five years.

That would be within a decade of that limit being set down by the Paris climate deal.

The Met Office’s decadal forecast said the global average temperature was “likely” to exceed 1C between 2018-2022 and could reach 1.5C.

“There is also a small (around 10%) chance that at least one year in the period could exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,” the office said in a statement on Wednesday.  “It is the first time that such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts.”

Met Office scientists were quick to point out that this would not actually breach the Paris Agreement, as that limit refers to a long term average, rather than a yearly reading.

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