Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Climate Change Is Happening Faster than Expected, and It’s More Extreme

New research suggests human-caused emissions will lead to bigger impacts on heat and extreme weather, and sooner than the IPCC warned just three years ago.


Scientists warned in 2017 that not enough has been done to protect millions of people from an expected increase in dangerous heat waves. (Credit: Chris Hondros/Getty Images) Click to Enlarge.
In the past year the scientific consensus shifted toward a grimmer and less uncertain picture of the risks posed by climate change.

When the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its 5th Climate Assessment in 2014, it formally declared that observed warming was "extremely likely" to be mostly caused by human activity.

2017 Year in Review Series
This year, a major scientific update from the United States Global Change Research Program put it more bluntly:  "There is no convincing alternative explanation."

Other scientific authorities have issued similar assessments:

The Royal Society published a compendium of how the science has advanced, warning that it seems likelier that we've been underestimating the risks of warming than overestimating them.

The American Meteorological Society issued its annual study of extreme weather events and said that many of those it studied this year would not have been possible without the influence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said recent melting of the Arctic was not moderating and was more intense than at any time in recorded history.
 While 2017 may not have hit a global temperature record, it is running in second or third place, and on the heels of records set in 2015 and 2016.  Talk of some kind of "hiatus" seems as old as disco music.

'A Deadly Tragedy in the Making'
Some of the strongest warnings in the Royal Society update came from health researchers, who said there hasn't been nearly enough done to protect millions of vulnerable people worldwide from the expected increase in heat waves.

"It's a deadly tragedy in the making, all the worse because the same experts are saying such heat waves are eminently survivable with adequate resources to protect people," said climate researcher Eric Wolff, lead author of the Royal Society update.

Read more at Climate Change Is Happening Faster than Expected, and It’s More Extreme

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