Cost of Not Adapting to Climate Change Would Be at Least Five Times Higher

A study on damage to coastal considered only real estate loss.  If nothing is done, researchers say, losses might be up to ten times higher if the predicament includes the spreading of flood- and global warming -related diseases.

Coastal cities deal with the constant fear that sea levels should continue to rise in the years ahead due to climate change.  In the case of Santos, home of Latin American's biggest harbor, a study supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) estimated that, by 2100 sea level might be 45 cm higher and not only will storm surges be more frequent, but they will reach peaks that might surpass current peak levels in 20 cm.

Co-supported by the Belmont Forum - a global initiative that also design adaptive strategies in the coastal locations of Selsey (United Kingdom city) and Broward (a county in Florida, US) - the study titled Project Metropolis defined minimum costs so that Santos may adapt itself for what's ahead:  approximately R$ 300 million worth of urban infrastructure renovations in Ponta da Praia area and also in its Northwest region.  On the other hand, failure to adapt to climate change would cost at least R$1.5 billion

"However, the cost could be underestimated at R$1.5 billion because the model only considers physical buildings and other structures, and the calculations are based on their imputed or taxable values.  If we included losses in other areas, such as health and education, for example, the value would easily reach R$3 billion," said José Marengo, coordinator of Project Metropolis.

Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão, an investigator at Brazil's National Space Research Institute (Inpe) and also a member of the project, sheds light on the broad impact of climate change on the health sector.  Risk analysis and the investigation of adaptive strategies, according to Aragão, identified a connection between El Niño and the rising number of dengue cases in the summers of 2010 and 2015 - in these years, the expenditure on patient hospitalizations and treatments in Santos rose by at least R$720,000.

"We estimated some of the impacts on health, but if all diseases linked to rising temperatures and flooding are factored in, we can see the real impact of this problem in the area of health," said the researcher.

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