Surging Heat May Limit Aircraft Takeoffs Globally

Study sees widespread effects on aviation.

Rising temperatures due to global warming will make it harder for many aircraft around the world to take off in coming decades, says a new study.  During the hottest parts of the day, 10 to 30 percent of fully loaded planes may have to remove some fuel, cargo or passengers, or else wait for cooler hours to fly, the study concludes. The study, which is the first such global analysis, appears today in the journal Climatic Change.

"Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airline and impact aviation operations around the world," said lead author Ethan Coffel, a Columbia University PhD. student.

As air warms, it spreads out, and its density declines.  In thinner air, wings generate less lift as a plane races along a runway.  Thus, depending on aircraft model, runway length and other factors, at some point a packed plane may be unable to take off safely if the temperature gets too high.  Weight must be dumped, or else the flight delayed or canceled.

Average global temperatures have gone up nearly 1 degree Centigrade (1.8 Fahrenheit) since about 1980, and this may already be having an effect.  In late June, American Airlines canceled more than 40 flights out of Phoenix, Ariz., when daytime highs of nearly 120 degrees made it too hot for smaller regional jets to take off.  Worldwide, average temperatures are expected to go up as much as another 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) by 2100.  But that is only part of the story; heat waves will probably become more prevalent, with annual maximum daily temperatures at airports worldwide projected to go up 4 to 8 degrees C (7.2 to 14.4 F) by 2080, according to the study.  It is these heat waves that may produce the most problems.

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