Countries’ U.N. Climate Pledges Aren’t Enough to Keep Warming to 2 Degrees. That’s OK.

The targets countries have set so far to limit their contribution to climate change over the next several years won’t do enough to keep global warming below the 2°C threshold, according to a new report.

The report, published Wednesday by the Climate Action Tracker, analyzed the 29 “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs) — or countries’ goals for limiting warming post-2020 — submitted to the United Nations so far.  The researchers found that, if countries stick to these commitments for 2030 and don’t take additional action against climate change, keeping warming below 2°C — the level that many scientists say is the highest warming the Earth can tolerate without major catastrophic effects (though others say 2 degrees is too high) — would become nearly impossible.

“It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below 2°C could essentially become infeasible, and 1.5°C beyond reach.  Given the present level of pledged climate action, commitments should only be made until 2025,” Bill Hare, a co-author of the report and founder and CEO of Climate Analytics, said in a statement. “The INDCs therefore need to be considerably strengthened for the period 2020-2025.”

This isn’t a surprise for many following the lead-up to Paris, however.  As Climate Progress’ Joe Romm has pointed out, experts have long known that the commitments made in Paris likely won’t keep warming to 2°C — Paris is necessary for getting the country on track to 2°C, but it isn’t the end-all-be-all of climate action.

“Paris is focused on stanching the bleeding with a tourniquet,” Romm wrote in July.  “The goal has always been to get firm global commitments from the big emitters to meet serious targets in the 2025-2030 timeframe so we can get off our current emissions pathway — a pathway that would blow past 4°C (7°F) warming, ruin a livable climate for centuries and make feeding 9 billion people post-2050 an unimaginably difficult task.”

Countries would have to make much more drastic cuts if the Paris climate talks are to achieve the goal of keeping warming to 2°C — cuts along the lines of getting to zero emissions in the next 85 or so years.  Those types of commitments weren’t ever a consideration for Paris.

Read more at Countries’ U.N. Climate Pledges Aren’t Enough to Keep Warming to 2 Degrees. That’s OK.