The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projects that full compliance with the rules will drive down the portion of the nation’s power supply that comes from burning coal to 27 percent by 2030—a major slip from its 39 percent share in 2013. Renewables will more than double their share of U.S. power generation over the same period, rising from 13 percent to 28 percent, projects the EPA.
Natural gas–fired generation is expected to maintain its current role of roughly 27 percent, rather than grow substatially as predicted when EPA released its draft plan in June 2014.
Timelines for initial compliance, meanwhile, have slipped back two years to 2022. This is mainly the result of the power industry’s complaint that a compliance regime beginning in 2020 would spur a rushed shuttering of coal-fired power plants and increase the risk of power grid blackouts.
Despite the delay, however, the final rule is actually projected to achieve greater carbon reductions. By 2030, the EPA projects, carbon emissions from the power sector will be 32 percent lower than their 2005 level, an improvement on the 30 percent goal in the EPA’s 2014 proposal. This reflects, to a large extent, the carry-forward effect of strong recent growth in installations of renewable generation such as solar panels.
Obama said the pledged action by the United States sets the stage for an international deal at the Paris climate change negotiations to take place later this year. “In December, with America leading the way, we have the chance to put together one of the most ambitious international climate agreements in history,” said Obama.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which sets grid standards, issued a statement yesterday saying it was pleased that “the final rule addresses several topics identified as needing attention” in its evaluations of EPA’s proposal. “NERC’s principal finding recommended additional time in order to allow for extensive planning and significant investments in new energy infrastructure that will be needed to achieve emission reduction goals,” said NERC in its statement.
The Washington, D.C.-based Edison Electric Institute, a trade group representing investor-owned utilities, struck an equally conciliatory tone. In a statement issued yesterday, EEI president Tom Kuhn welcomed the flexibility offered by the final rules and said they would “work with the states” as they develop plans to comply with the rules. “Today utilities are focused on the transition to a cleaner generating fleet,” said Kuhn.
Read more at Renewables to Overtake King Coal Under Obama Carbon Regs
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