Here’s How a Republican President Could Undermine the Clean Power Plan

The Republican presidential candidates do not support EPA’s new Clean Power Plan.  They made that abundantly clear on Monday, when President Obama rolled out the final rule limiting carbon emissions from existing power plants.  GOP front-runners derided the rule with the usual anti-government adjectives:  Jeb Bush called it “overreaching” and “irresponsible,” while Ted Cruz said it was “lawless and radical.”

This is as predictable as it is worrisome.  Virtually the entire Republican field does not accept climate science and opposes regulating climate pollution.  The contrast with the three serious Democratic candidates, all of whom praised the rule and have previously pledged to defend it, could not be starker.

So what will it mean for the Clean Power Plan if a Republican wins the presidency next year? He will get rid of the rule if he can.  That would not only cause more climate pollution and conventional pollution; it would undermine the U.S.’s credibility internationally by making it unlikely that we’ll meet our commitments under international climate agreements.  In fact, the mere threat of a future Republican administration is already a specter looming over the climate negotiations that will take place in Paris this December.

But can the next president undo the rule?  Not necessarily, but they could do a lot to undermine it and render it toothless.  To actually repeal a rule that has already been finalized, EPA would have to go through a new rule-making process, which takes years.  And it would be challenged in court, forcing the agency to demonstrate a “rational basis” for its action.
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[T]he president could simply neglect to enforce the law and let it wither.  This has been the Republican approach to laws governing everything from workplace safety to racial discrimination in housing and employment.  And the Clean Power Plan’s design really lends itself to this.  States are required to submit their plans for reducing emissions between 2016 and 2018.  The Obama administration is encouraging them to start early by making only projects begun after they submit their plans eligible to earn tradable credits.  In a blue or purple state, that might motivate the state government.  But in red states, especially ones dependent on fossil fuels like Kentucky, there is just going to be too much resistance to cooperating, and red-state leaders will be holding out to see who wins the presidential election.

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