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In 2010 Mark Anderson and Charles E. Ferree of The Nature Conservancy published a paper called “Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity” that looked at the northeast United States and ways to predict where the greatest biodiversity occurs. At the time, forecasting of species migration looked primarily at what climatic conditions a species lives in now and where those same climatic conditions might exist in the future, which is presumably where those plants and animals would move to.
But biological models are frustratingly untrustworthy because there are so many variables. So Anderson, using earlier research, compared the impact of climate on plants and animals with abiotic, or non-living factors, such things as geology, elevation, and landforms — and got a surprise. "Abiotic variables were fantastic predictors of how much diversity was in a state," said Anderson. "And climate variables were not good predictors." ... One of the best predictors for richness of biodiversity, for example, is limestone because many species thrive in its low acid, calcium- rich soil. A good deal of biodiversity, in fact, occurs only in limestone regions.
The idea of “conserving the stage” has become a big part of conservation thinking since 2010. "It's a key aspect," said Robin Grossinger, senior scientist with the San Francisco Estuary Institute. "The physical drivers, such as the sediment, are what shapes habitat and gives it the dynamic ability to adapt over time.
Read more at Resilience: A New Conservation Strategy for a Warming World
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