Texas’s Warmer Future: Drought and Heavy Rains?

The seemingly endless and often torrential rains that deluged Texas and Oklahoma in May are in some ways a harbinger of what the South Central states can expect to see as the world warms.  But the region also could be in store for just the opposite – more long bouts of hot, dry days that could cause the Southern Plains to be even more susceptible to drought than they already are.

The juxtaposition between these trends is an example of the complex and sometimes unpredictable way that climate change signals come together.  Some trends are well known while others have yet to crystallize.  The trend toward heavier localized downpours is a solid tenet of climate science, as is the fact that overall higher temperatures will exacerbate any droughts that do occur.  But whether the boom-and-bust cycle of drought and flooding seen over the last five years is what the future will look like is much murkier.

“The question is are we seeing the new normal,” Victor Murphy, climate services program manager for the National Weather Service’s Southern Region, said.

Rains that fell for days on end, and sometimes in astonishingly intense bursts, made May the wettest month on record for both Texas and Oklahoma with many locations recording 15 to 20 inches for the month.  Areas in some cases saw up to 500 percent of their normal rain for the month, wiping out the years-long drought.

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