El Niño Forecast Brings Calif. Hope for Drought Relief

El Niño is gaining steam in the Pacific Ocean and forecasters are now leaning towards it being a strong event, the first since the blockbuster El Niño of 1997-1998.  That possibility is again raising the collective hopes of Californians that this winter may finally see some desperately needed precipitation to begin the slow climb out of a historic drought.

“In California, all eyes are on the Pacific given the ongoing historic drought,” Daniel Swain, an atmospheric science Ph.D. student at Stanford University, said in an email.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its latest monthly El Niño forecast on Thursday, calling for a better than 90 percent chance that this event will stick around through the fall months, and an 85 percent chance it will last through the winter. Forecasters also took their first stab this year at projecting the intensity of the event, with the odds right now favoring a strong El Niño.  There is, as always with such forecasts, the niggling possibility that it could remain a weak event or even fizzle out.

“We can’t rule out a ‘97-‘98-like event,” NOAA forecaster Michelle L’Heureux said, but nor can they say that it will definitely happen.

If the El Niño does become a strong event and stays that way through the winter, that means there’s a good chance California could finally see some healthy rains come winter, the traditional wet season there, which has come up dry in recent years.  But after El Niño failed to flourish last year, hopes are seasoned with more than a few grains of salt.

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