The Shale Boom Has Already Gone Bust - at Least for Now

The meteoric rise in U.S. oil production has ended, easing a global glut and driving a rebound in crude prices from below $50 a barrel, according to crude trader and hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall.

Oil production from Texas to North Dakota peaked at almost 10 million barrels a day in February and has been falling since then, Hall said in a letter Friday to investors in Astenbeck Capital Management LLC, his commodities hedge fund.  A drastic reduction in drilling rigs is starting to shrink U.S. oil output, according to U.S. government data cited by Hall.

That’s helped drive a 36 percent rally in the past six weeks, and prices will continue to rise because it will be harder for producers to ramp up than it was to cut back, Hall said in his letter. Lower crude prices have also boosted demand, while the risk of supply disruptions across the Middle East is growing amid sectarian tensions.

“We have now reached a turning point,” Hall wrote.  Growing demand and supply pullbacks “rendered all the doomsday forecasts self-defeating.”

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