The study by the author of an influential report on the economics of climate change found that countries’ pledges ahead of a crunch UN climate summit in Paris this December would not keep warming below 2C, the level that previous UN negotiations have agreed on.
But Stern said he was still optimistic that a good deal could be reached in Paris.
“There is strong action coming through in many parts of the world,” he said, pointing to the rising use of renewable energy and efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions in countries from Latin America to Asia.
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Bob Ward , a co-author on the paper and policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said: “The UN is not planning to carry out its summing up of the INDCs until November, but if that is the point at which everyone realised that the INDCs are collectively not consistent with the 2C goal, it might cast a shadow over Paris and lead some to regard it, wrongly, as a failure.
“We think it is better to confront that fact now and focus on ensuring that the Paris agreement includes a mechanism for raising ambition after the summit, while also encouraging countries to go further in their INDCs.”
Once the national plans are submitted to the UN, they are subject to scrutiny by the organisation and by other governments, to check that they are fair and proportionate.
The plans will be the keystone of any agreement to be forged in Paris, along with any agreement on how much money developed countries should provide to developing countries to help them curb their emissions and cope with the effects of climate change.
Read more at Current Carbon Pledges Won't Stop Dangerous Global Warming, Says Lord Stern
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