California’s Drought Could Upend America’s Entire Food System

Up to this point, feats of engineering and underground aquifers have made the drought somewhat bearable for California’s farmers.  But if dry conditions become the new normal, how much longer can — and should — California’s fields feed the country?  And if they can no longer do so, what should the rest of the country do?
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Some crops will always be grown in California.  The Napa Valley, where a history of earthquakes has resulted in 14 different microclimates perfect for wine, is a truly unique place for growing grapes.  The maligned almond is a great crop for California — it needs brief, cold winters and long, dry summers, and produces more value than it uses water, something rare for crops. Realistically, there aren’t many places in the world better suited to growing almonds than California.

But a lot of the things that California produces in such stunning numbers — tomatoes, lettuce, celery, carrots — can be grown elsewhere.  Before the 20th century, the majority of produce consumed in the United States came from small farms that grew a relatively diverse number of crops.  Fruit and vegetable production was regional, and varieties were dictated by the climate of those areas.
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Climate change is altering that balance.  Though evidence connecting the current drought to climate change is the subject of debate, studies show that man-made climate change certainly won’t help the situation.  A recent study out of Stanford found that human emissions increase the probability of the low-precipitation, high-temperature conditions that have made this drought so tough.  Another study from NASA also found that if emissions continue to increase, the American Southwest has an 80 percent chance of facing a multi-decade megadrought from 2050 through the end of the century.

Mike Hamm, director of the Michigan State University Center for Regional Food Systems, hopes that those projections — of more frequent and longer-lasting droughts — don’t come true.  He hopes that California can still produce as many fruits and vegetables in 30 years as it does now — but he also thinks that, to safeguard our food system, we need to move toward a more regionalized system of production.

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